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• Cash AND cards to go the way of the cheque? Tech experts say payments by mobile will ‘eliminate’ both by 2020

  Phone chips will become main method of payment

  Users will pay via NFC (‘near field’) chips where they ‘bump’ mobiles on tills to pay

  65% of 1200 experts agreed with statement

  Poll includes experts from Google, Microsoft and Harvard

  By ROB WAUGH

  Published: 12:05 GMT, 18 April 2012 | Updated: 12:05 GMT, 18 April 2012

  24

  View
  comments

  Payments via mobile systems such as NFC (near field communications) chips will overtake both cash AND cards by 2020, claims a new report

  The pennies in our pockets could soon be consigned to the history books – along with debit and credit cards.

  A poll of technology experts by America’s Pew Internet Research
  centre found that most predicted that mobile-phone payments would have overtaken both
  cash AND cards by 2020.

  Of the 1200 experts polled, 65% thought that cash and cards would be nearly wiped out by 2020.

  The poll included Harvard experts as well as engineers from
  companies such as Google and Microsoft.

  The need for either cash or cards will be ‘eliminated’ by chips in mobile phones.

  In shops, people will ‘bump’ their phones against tills to pay – or simply pay online via apps.

  Many tech experts also believe that the new systems will be MORE
  secure.

  Google chief economist Hal Varian said, ‘Two-factor authentication (secret number + physical device) is better than one-factor authentication, and smart phones seem to have a natural role
  here.’

  Microsoft  engineer Christian Huitema says, ‘We have
  already witnessed the transition from cash to debit/credit cards.
  The electronic wallet is not much more than a ‘virtual card,’ in which near-field wireless
  communication replaces the reading of a magnetic stripe.’

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  The poll, which included experts from Harvard and Google,
  expected that ‘near field communication’ systems – where users
  ‘bump’ phones against tills to transfer funds, as
  well as online payments from phones, would have overtaken cash
  and cards in eight years time.

  Based on a technology known as near-field communication (NFC), Google Wallet allows users
  to store payment information in the cloud and pay for goods at participating retailers by tapping their phone
  at the point of purchase

  ‘Overall, a majority supported the scenario that by 2020 most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make,
  nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards,’ says Pew, a respected technology think tank.

  ‘These experts feel that the explosive growth in the use of
  smartphones and other mobile devices, makes these systems an obvious choice to replace
  established modes of payment in day-to-day commerce.’

  The research found that the change is already happening – particularly in America, where phones using Google Wallet (a mobile payment system) and
  NFC payment chips are more common.

  A March 2012 Federal Reserve report found that 21% of mobile phone owners had used mobile banking
  services in the past year and that another 11% of mobile owners plan to use such services in the next 12 months.

  The study also found that some 12% of mobile phone owners have made payments—such as paying bills online
  or transferring money directly to another person’s account—via their phones.

  In the developing world, the figures are even higher – 20%
  of Kenya’s GDP is sent via text message every year using the country’s M-Pesa
  system.

  In late 2011, Google launched Google Wallet in partnership with
  Citibank and MasterCard.

  Based on a technology known as near-field communication (NFC), Google Wallet allows users to store payment
  information in the cloud and pay for goods at participating
  retailers by tapping their phone at the point of purchase.

  Many analysts predict that Apple will announce its own virtual
  wallet service in the near future.

  Google

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